China's Steel Market Prospect For 2021

2021, the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-2025), will mark the start of demand-side reform in China’s economy and global marketand, and will drive the demand for China’s steel industry.

It is believed that the global economy is expected to usher in a full recovery in 2021: the global economy will grow by 5%-5.5%, and the Chinese economy will grow by 8%-9%. 

In terms of infrastructure, infrastructure investment will increase by about 3% in 2021.

In terms of real estate, real estate investment will grow by about 5% in 2021, the growth of newly started area is relatively stable, and the sales area may increase slightly.

As for the manufacturing industry, manufacturing investment will rebound significantly in 2021, and the previous investment growth rate will be about 8%.

The downstream steel industry mainly uses steel. It is estimated that in 2021, the increase in sales of automobiles and home appliances, and the rebound of the shipbuilding industry will greatly increase the demand for steel.

In terms of supply and demand of crude steel, he said that the national crude steel output in 2020 is close to 1.05 billion tons, and it may be around 1.08 billion tons in 2021.

In terms of prices, the average price of most raw materials and fuels has room to rise in 2021, and the average price of major steel products will rise by 300-500 yuan/ton in 2021.

Imagining the future, Wang believes that steel is a very valuable material in the country's process of achieving a strong manufacturing country and a strong quality country. Two opportunities will usher: the "14th Five-Year Plan" period may usher in the peak steel consumption; at the same time, it will also usher in After the consumption peaks, the surplus and structural adjustment pressure challenges.